Cargando...
Fecha
2025-10-18
Derechos de acceso
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editorial
Springer
Citas
Resumen
This study investigates the seasonal dynamics and environmental controls on radon (222Rn) concentrations in Los Verdes Cave, a volcanic lava tube in Lanzarote, Spain. Continuous monitoring of radon levels, together with external and internal climatic parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed), over an annual cycle, revealed distinct ventilation regimes characterized by pronounced seasonal variability. Radon concentrations exhibited peak values during the summer–autumn period (up to 882 Bq/m³), with minima observed in winter–spring (as low as 17 Bq/m³), indicating thermally driven ventilation inversions. A time-series ARIMA model identified external air temperature as the principal driver, wherein elevated temperatures led to reduced convective exchange and enhanced radon accumulation within the cave. Relative humidity and atmospheric pressure were also significant contributors, with underground air humidity exceeding 70% promoting radon retention. The validated model was used to forecast future radon scenarios under IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate trajectories, forecasting radon concentration increases of 5–60% by the year 2100 as a function of projected surface warming. These projections underscore implications for occupational exposure in confined volcanic environments, contribute to the broader understanding of subterranean greenhouse gas behaviour, and offer analog insights for astrobiological exploration in extraterrestrial lava tubes. The modeling framework enhances the ability to decouple radon variability associated with climatic forcing from geogenic anomalies potentially indicative of volcanic unrest. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of statistical time-series approaches for forecasting radon behaviour under evolving climatic conditions and highlights the necessity of long-term environmental monitoring in geologically active subsurface ecosystems.
Descripción
The registered version of this article, first published in “Earth Systems and Environment, 2025", is available online at the publisher's website: Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00846-1
La versión registrada de este artículo, publicado por primera vez en “Earth Systems and Environment, 2025", está disponible en línea en el sitio web del editor: Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00846-1
La versión registrada de este artículo, publicado por primera vez en “Earth Systems and Environment, 2025", está disponible en línea en el sitio web del editor: Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00846-1
Categorías UNESCO
Palabras clave
Citación
Lario, J., Cuezva, S., Fernández-Cortés, A. et al. Environmental Drivers of Subterranean Radon Dynamics in Volcanic Systems: Modeling, Prediction, and Forecasting in a Warming World. Earth Syst Environ (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00846-1
Centro
Facultad de Ciencias
Departamento
Ciencias Analíticas